This chapter examines four key issues to evaluate change and continuity in global politics. It begins with changing Chinese–US relations, which some believe may soon dominate global politics. It then turns to three flashpoints in the clash between Islam and the West: the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, Afghanistan and the War on Terrorism, and the war in Iraq.
1. The challenge from China
China’s military and economic impact on global politics is growing and its relationship with the U.S. is highly complex.
a) From hostility to engagement
- Hostility characterized relations between the U.S. and PRC, but relations warmed after the Sino-Soviet split.
b) Strategic partners or strategic rivals?
- Tensions exist over the issues of Taiwan, China’s military buildup, human rights, and competition for energy resources.
c) Taiwan
Taiwan is a consistent source of tension between the US and China. Tensions are highest when China anticipates Taiwan might try to declare independence.
d) Military buildup
- China has the third largest military budget in the world and has been modernizing its military since the 1990s. Reform efforts have emphasized training for high-tech warfare and enhancing its naval and strategic deterrent forces.
- In response, the US has reinforced its forces in the Pacific and strengthened relations with Japan.
e) North Korea
The US and China have cooperated to end North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, but ultimately their interests differ. China most fears the collapse of North Korea’s regime while the US most fears a nuclear arms race in East Asia.
f) Human rights
The US accuses China of violating civil and political rights and has used various efforts, including trade ties, to pressure China to improve its human rights record.
g) Energy
- The US and China are competitors over scarce energy resources, especially oil.
- China has sought to diversify its oil supply, often doing business in countries where US businesses are not allowed to invest, like Sudan and Iran.
2. Israel and Palestine
The saga of Jewish-Palestinian conflict from the beginning of the 20th century until the present.
a) Palestine—After World War I
Palestinian-Jewish hostility grew after the Balfour Declaration with an influx of European Jewry into Palestine before and after World War II.
b) Israel: The Founding
Israel was established as a result of its 1948 War of Independence.
c) The Suez War
In 1956, an Anglo-French and Israeli invasion of Egypt failed to overthrow President Nasser.
d) The Six Day War and its Consequences
As a result of the 1967 Six Day War, Israel occupied the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, the Sinai Desert, and the Golan Heights.
e) From Crisis to Crisis: The Yom Kippur War, Lebanon, and Camp David
Despite the Israeli-Egyptian agreement at Camp David, Arab-Israeli relations remained hostile after the 1967 war, owing to the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the Lebanese civil war and Israeli invasion of that country.
f) Oslo and the Intifadas
Israeli-Palestinian efforts to achieve peace in the 1990s were thwarted amidst Palestinian suicide attacks against Israel and the two Palestinian intifadas on the West Bank and in the Gaza Strip.
g) Impediments to Peace
The key impediment to reaching a durable Israeli-Palestinian peace are the status of Jerusalem, a scarcity of water, the plight of Palestinian refugees, and the presence of extremists on both sides.
3. Afghanistan, 9/11, and the War on Terrorism
The history of Afghanistan from the 19th century to the present is one of tribalism, conflict, and invasion.
a) The Afghan Background
Three British invasions and subsequent efforts to unify Afghanistan all failed.
b) The Soviet Invasion and Islamic Resistance
In the 1970s, Afghanistan came under communist control, was invaded by the USSR, and saw the success of the U.S.-supported Islamic resistance to Soviet occupation.
c) Al Qaeda, Islamic Terrorism, and the War on Terrorism
Following 9/11, the U.S. began the War on Terrorism, which began with a U.S. invasion of Afghanistan under the Taliban and the overthrow of the Taliban.
4. The Iraq Dimension
Born after World War I, Iraq experienced repeated violence except when governed by ruthless leaders.
a) The Birth of Modern Iraq
Iraq was created by Britain after the Ottoman Empire’s collapse and was governed by a monarch through World War II until the overthrow of the monarchy and Saddam Hussein’s elevation to power.
b) Saddam Hussein and the Iran-Iraq War
A bloody war between Iraq and Iran began in 1981 following the overthrow of Iran’s Shah by Shia supporters of the Ayatollah Khomeini.
c) The Persian Gulf War
Following Iraq’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait, President George H. W. Bush led a successful coalition in a war against Saddam Hussein.
d) The Iraq War
In 2003, the U.S. invaded Iraq, claiming Saddam was harboring WMD. Despite the rapid defeat of Iraq’s army, an insurrection continues against U.S. forces and those supporting the U.S. presence in Iraq.
5. And the Future?
U.S.-Muslim relations are likely to remain difficult for the foreseeable future as moderates and extremists struggle for control of Islam’s future.
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Q1 Are the United States and China strategic partners or are they strategic rivals?
A1 For much of the Cold War until a split developed between China and the Soviet Union in the 1960s, the United States and China remained adversaries. The United States had not recognized the communist government of Mao Zedong, but in 1971 a series of steps began that ended in the establishment of full diplomatic relations between the US and China in 1979. In addition to cooperating against the Soviet Union, the two countries reached a bargain over Taiwan—controlled by the anti-communists who had fled the mainland after the communist triumph—under which the US recognized Taiwan as part of China and the Chinese communists agreed not to use force to bring Taiwan back into the fold. In recent years, China and the United States have become major trading partners and have cooperated on a variety of issues. However, they have also disagreed on significant issues including human rights in China, China's sale of missile technology to countries such as Iran and Pakistan, the degree of pressure to put on North Korea to end that country's nuclear weapons program, and the rapid modernization of China's military forces. Under President Bill Clinton, the United States decided to sever the link between the human-rights issue and trade, but the two countries remain wary of each other, with the Taiwan question still unresolved and China competing with the United States for scarce natural resources, especially oil.
Q2 What events produced Israeli-Palestinian hostility?
A2 The problem of Palestine dates back to World War I and the collapse of the Ottoman Empire which had previously governed the region. During the war, the British government made contradictory promises to Jewish advocates of Zionism and to Arab Palestinians. After the war, Great Britain tried to limit Jewish immigration into the territory over which it enjoyed administrative control, but large numbers of Jews still managed to gain entry. The Holocaust of World War II produced enormous sympathy for the Jews of Europe and triggered an exodus of Jewish survivors from Europe to Palestine. This influx produced tension and violence between the Jewish and Arab Palestinian communities which the British could not control. Britain placed the issue before the United States and announced it would surrender its mandate over Palestine. When the Arabs turned down the UN plan to partition the territory in 1948, war began as Arab armies invaded the newly independent state of Israel. Following Israel's military victory, conflict continued, and subsequent wars erupted in 1956, 1967, and 1973 between Israeli and the Arab states. The 1956 war was instigated by Britain and France after Egypt's President Nasser nationalized the Suez Canal, and they were joined by Israel. After the British and French were forced to withdraw, a UN peacekeeping force was sent to separate Israel and its enemies. In June 1967, fearing an imminent attack by its Arab foes, Israel struck first and in what came to be called the Six Day War seized the West Bank of the Jordan, the Gaza Strip, the Sinai Peninsula, the Golan Heights, and all of the city of Jerusalem. It continues to occupy all of those territories except the Sinai which was returned to Egypt as part of the 1978 Camp David Accords. In 1973, Egypt and Syria attacked Israel on its holiest holiday, Yom Kippur (the Day of Atonement). The war ended in an Israeli victory but only after it had suffered significant casualties and a US-Soviet confrontation was narrowly averted. In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon to force the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) from that country, and one result was the formation of the terrorist Shia group Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. From the 1980s, Palestinian-Israeli conflict has become the main focus of regional violence, featuring two risings or intifadas by Palestinians seeking an independent state and an end to Israeli occupation. For its part, Israel has sought to stamp out Palestinian terrorism and create security along its borders. Several peace efforts including negotiations at Camp David in 2000 chaired by President Clinton and the 2003 "road map" proposal of the Bush administration have had few results.
Q3 What are the impediments to peace in the Middle East?
A3 Among the most important impediments is how to assure Israeli and Palestinian security following an Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territories. Such a withdrawal would require as well resolving the issue of Israeli settlements that proliferated, especially on the West Bank, after 1967, as well as the size and shape of a Palestinian state. The most vexing of the territorial disagreements involves Jerusalem which both sides want as their capital and which is the home to the holy sites of Judaism, Islam, and Christianity. Another problem in search of a solution involves the desire of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who left their homes in Israel during the wars and who with their children live in refugee camps throughout the region. The difficult in dividing scarce resources, notably water, further complicates relations between Israelis and Palestinians. Religion is not the only identity that divides Israelis and Palestinians. Israel is a democracy and an economically developed Western society, while most of the Arab Middle East consists of impoverished and traditional societies governed by authoritarian leaders. The sheer number of issues and the length of time they have festered make it difficult to achieve peace. And these issues are complicated by the fact that both Israel and the Palestinians have fragile political systems with extremists on both sides ready to sabotage any agreement. In addition, outsiders have repeatedly pursued their own interests and conflicts in the region, especially during the Cold War.
Q4 How did the United States and Islamic militants come into conflict, and what is the War on Terrorism?
A4 Western-Islamic conflict is hardly new but in recent decades has been exacerbated by globalization which has undermined traditional norms and weakened traditional leaders in Islamic societies. Two events galvanized Islamic consciousness—the overthrow of Iran's Shah in 1978 by follows of the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan the following years and its subsequent occupation of the country. In the case of Afghanistan, Islamic militants with American and Saudi assistance launched an insurrection that ultimately drove the Soviet Union out of the country. The success of the Islamic resistance inspired those Muslims who wished to purify Islam, recreate the ancient Caliphate, spread their faith, and rid their countries of Western influences. The most important of these was Osama bin Laden and his followers in Al Qaeda who carried out a variety of terrorist acts against the American interests in the Middle East, Africa, and elsewhere. Having failed to achieve most of their aims and having been driven out of Sudan to Afghanistan, Al Qaeda planned and carried out the most destructive terrorist act in history when on September 11, 2001 terrorists hijacked several commercial aircraft in the United States and crashed them into New York City's World Trade Center and the Pentagon in Washington, DC. Following that event, President George W. Bush declared a war on terrorism and sent American troops into Afghanistan to overthrow the radical Taliban government in that country after it refused to turn over bin Laden and his followers. Since then the War on Terrorism has been waged on a variety of fronts: in the United States by improving homeland security and overseas in a variety of countries. For their part, Al Qaeda and its followers have spread terrorism from Bali to London and from Madrid to Morocco. The Bush administration also regards the Iraq War as p[art of its fight against global terrorism.
Q5 What brought about the Anglo-American invasion of Iraq in 2003, and what are the main issues in the Iraq War?
A5 American-Iraqi hostility dates back to Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Following the invasion and a series UN Security Council resolutions, a coalition led by the United States mounted a massive attack against Iraq in 1991, annihilating much of that country's army and liberating Kuwait. However, the war came to an end without overthrowing Saddam Hussein's regime, and in the following years the United States and its allies enforced sanctions against Iraq, including no-fly zones over the country, to force the regime to carry out UN resolutions and to protect Shia and Kurdish Iraqis from Saddam's Sunni-dominated regime. After the war, it was discovered that Iraq had come closer to acquiring weapons of mass destruction than had previously been thought, and UN resolutions, backed by international inspectors, sought to force the regime to end its WMD programs and destroy any such weapons it had acquired. Following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the Bush administration decided to oust Saddam Hussein from power. The administration alleged that Iraq still had programs to develop weapons of mass of destruction and was refusing to cooperate with the international inspectors. The administration also claimed that Saddam Hussein was in contact with Al Qaeda. Subsequently, there is has been no evidence for either of these allegations, and the administration added to its reasons for invading Iraq a desire to impose democracy in that country and trigger a wave of democracy throughout the Middle East. At British urging, the US sought and gained a Security Council resolution that threatened Iraq with serious consequences if it did not provide complete information about its WMD programs. Despite Iraqi claims that they had no such programs, the United States sought a second UN resolution authorizing an invasion of the country. Faced with opposition from Russia and from friends such as France and Germany, the US was unable to get a second resolution, but, claiming that the initial resolution provided sufficient legal authorization, invaded Iraq along with Great Britain in the spring of 2003. The invasion quickly succeeded in routing Iraq's armed forces. Saddam Hussein fled and remained in hiding until he was found. He was then put on trial by the new government, convicted of crimes against humanity, and executed. Notwithstanding the relative ease of the initial military victory, US and allied forces proved insufficient to quell an insurrection that began soon after. The destruction of Iraq's armed forces and government structure created a vacuum which militant Sunnis from Iraq and abroad, some of whom were followers of Saddam and some of whom identify with Al Qaeda, soon filled. Sunni militants also sought to bring down the new government of Iraq, which was dominated by the country's Shia majority supported by Kurdish Iraqis. In addition to insurrection against American and allied occupation forces, Sunni militants began to bloody terrorist attacks against Shia civilians and Shia militias began to take vicious revenge against Sunni civilians. The country has descended into civil war, and it appears increasingly likely to divide along sectarian lines despite continued US efforts to halt the process. |
